pore

Survivor

I'm proud to report that I have won the 100k Survivor contest for the second time in four years.

Survivor Week 17

This 100k contest started at Sportsbook.ag on September 9 with 12,299 entries. Here we are 111 days later where 31 still stand. Glancing back at the teams I have used, I managed to chose 12 teams that are either in the playoffs or still fighting for their lives. Only four teams that I used are having bad seasons. Somehow, the plan is all working out the way I had hoped. I have scrupulously saved New England for Week 17 like a wise Crow saving a shiny button. I spent the first part of this week floating on the feeling that I had already made my toughest decisions for this journey, I survived the Tennessee v Washington near debacle whilst walking through the French Quarter on Saturday evening, and now all I had to do was plug New England into the final spot and wait.

But there's a wrinkle. I forgot that this clause in the Terms and Conditions had been triggered. 

Moreover, if there are between 10 and 34 entries alive after Week 16, each contestant must select two teams that will win their Week 17 game outright.

Well, that changes things a bit now doesn't it? I'm back to full worry mode again. You can imagine the noises my stomach is making as I sit here drinking coffee three days before kick off. While on the one hand it's good that this is more than likely going to vastly narrow the field of winners down, it is no longer a 90% certainty that I am going to make it across the finish line myself. However, I have made good decisions thus far and now my usage of marginal teams NYG, ATLANTA and TENN in weeks 14-16 is going to pay off, because I still have Houston in my back pocket, ready to play in a spot I liked them in: at home vs. a team playing for nothing in a position where they need to win to secure the division title. 

100K Contest 

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Seattle, New York Giants, Atlanta, Tennessee

Week 17: NEW ENGLAND & HOUSTON

There are 31 tickets left vying for the 100k.

Survivor Week 16

Atlanta smoked Arizona last week. Here we are with two decisions left to make. I've made my selection and I'm taking my family to Nola tomorrow for a Christmas trip. Hope I can resist the urge to watch this game Saturday. I may just walk along Rue Royale and just listen to street musicians with a good bottle of wine in my leather satchel. 

100K Contest 

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Seattle, New York Giants, Atlanta

Week 16: TENNESSEE

17. New England v nyj

There are 33 tickets left vying for the 100k.

Survivor Week 15

Really nice to be alive after 14 weeks. Last week, sticking to my guns on NYG paid off. Denver fell in SF. Ontheplusside lobbied for taking NE and then they fell to the Miracle in Miami. Pittsburgh knocked out another 29%. All told, 67% of the 109 got the axe. 37 remain.

I'm not going to worry about that number. My job is to get over the finish line. We'll see who is standing beside me at that point. 

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Seattle, New York Giants

Week 15: ATLANTA

16. New England v buf

17. Houston v jax

There are 37 tickets left vying for the 100k.

Survivor Week 14

Nice to be able to type that headline. Still alive with one ticket after 13 weeks. There are 109 survivors, but I can't think about my competition. I just have to keep my head down, make four winning picks and make it across the finish line. 

I have agonized over this week. I have Denver beating SF on the road in my Path to Victory, but I cannot trust Atlanta next week at home against Arizona. Atlanta might be in total rebuilding mode in ten days (as I expect GB to wax them this week) and Arizona proved resilient last week (a desert team winning in the snow, hmmm). So then we look to Tennessee tonight at home against the Jaguars. I picked Tennessee this morning and continued studying. It just felt wrong. Like that dry mouth feeling of dread. The quiet before the storm, where the wind is whipping up the dry leaves and the sky turns green before a tornado hits. The zombies are walking up the street kinda wrong. Just Wrong with a capital W.

So I'm selecting the New York Giants to carry me to week 15.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Seattle

Week 14: NYG

15. Denver v cle
16. New England v buf
17. Houston v jax

 

NFL Weekend Recap & Survivor Week 13

Lovely Thanksgiving week here in the Carolinas. Got all my kids home for five days which made me a very happy man. I am blessed beyond measure.

Dallas took my Survivor ticket into the Teens as weeks One through Twelve are in the books. I have adjusted my Path to victory once again and looks like I'm going to use my Week 17 team Seattle this week. I had Seahawks beating Arizona in Week 17, and Houston beating Cleveland in Week 13, but Cleveland all of a sudden is a legitimate average team instead of an easy "free square." Houston will be on a short week after playing tonight, and I'm just getting that prickly sensation at the back of my neck. So I will strike with the suddenly hot Seabirds at home against SF in 13 and then push Houston to Week 17 at home vs. Jacksonville. Looks like this:

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas

Week 13: SEATTLE

14. Denver @ sf (or Ten v. jax)
15. Atlanta v ari
16. New England v buf
17. Houston v jax

There are 121 tickets left vying for the 100k.

And Carolina... sigh, we were doomed after Donte Jackson injured his quad on the very first play of the game. His replacement got burned deep over and over (though it took Pete Carol 3 quarters to notice and let Wilson throw the ball). Gano blew another game and now the Panthers have lost three straight. The last two losses by a total of 4 points. I'd say we do not make the playoffs this year, with games against the Saints (twice) and Atlanta still on the docket.

Survivor Week 12

Another 50% plus went down in week 11 as 140 tickets fell. One hundred and twenty-four remain.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans

 

12. DALLAS v Washington (formerly Cincy, formerly Philly)

Survivor Week 11

I had something less than a clean slate in Week 10. Philadelphia laid a big fat loss on my 25k tickets. GB moved my 100k ticket, which of course is the most important thing (but don't we dwell on our losses more than we celebrate our victories?). I have adjusted my path for this last remaining ticket based on the teams' play this past weekend. Capitalized teams are changes from last week's Path.

After watching 

Overall, in the 100k contest, a whopping 47% fell on various favorites—which is fantastic news (trying to concentrate on the positive here!) The contest started with 12,299 tickets and 12,035 have bitten the dust. 264 remain. That's $378 per ticket if everyone wins every game for the final 7 weeks. Let's keep this one ticket rolling and let others fall by the wayside, shall we?

 

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay

 

 11. NEW ORLEANS v Phi (formerly Atl v. Dal)

12. CINCINATTI (formerly Phi v. Giants)

13. Houston v Cle

14. TENNESSEE v. Jax (because I am using NO in week 11)

15. ATLANTA (because I am using Cin in week 12)

16. New England v Buf

17. Seattle v Ari

Survivor Week 10

I had a clean slate in Week 9, moving all tickets forward. The next three weeks are tough. Week 11 is a major hump to get over. I have mapped out the path to victory for all tickets. I am going to share the full plan for these three tickets. 

 

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Week 10: Green Bay

 11. Atl

12. Phi

13. Hou

14. NO

15. Cin

16. NE

17. Sea

 

25K Contest

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Week 10: Philadelphia

11. NO

12. Bal

13. Hou

14. Car

15. Min

16. NE

17. KC

 

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Week 10: Philadelphia

11. NO

12. Bal

13. GB

14. Car

15. Atl

16. NE

17. Sea

Survivor Week 9

I had a clean slate in Week 8, moving all tickets forward. It as an easy week, as almost no one got knocked off around me. However, this is where "easy weeks come to an end. The next three weeks will be very telling. Week 11 in particular is absolutely brutal. Go ahead, go look.

I have mapped out the path to victory for all four of these tickets. Every week, every pick. I'll post the full plan next week. Let's get over the mid-year hump here first.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh

Week 9: Chicago

 

25K Contest

 

Pool Eight: LA Rams, KC, LA Chargers, New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Chicago

Week 9: Carolina

 

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver, Pittsburgh

Week 9: Chicago

 

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh

Week 9: Chicago