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Survivor Week 14

Nice to be able to type that headline. Still alive with one ticket after 13 weeks. There are 109 survivors, but I can't think about my competition. I just have to keep my head down, make four winning picks and make it across the finish line. 

I have agonized over this week. I have Denver beating SF on the road in my Path to Victory, but I cannot trust Atlanta next week at home against Arizona. Atlanta might be in total rebuilding mode in ten days (as I expect GB to wax them this week) and Arizona proved resilient last week (a desert team winning in the snow, hmmm). So then we look to Tennessee tonight at home against the Jaguars. I picked Tennessee this morning and continued studying. It just felt wrong. Like that dry mouth feeling of dread. The quiet before the storm, where the wind is whipping up the dry leaves and the sky turns green before a tornado hits. The zombies are walking up the street kinda wrong. Just Wrong with a capital W.

So I'm selecting the New York Giants to carry me to week 15.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Seattle

Week 15: NYG

15. Denver v cle
16. New England v buf
17. Houston v jax

 

NFL Weekend Recap & Survivor Week 13

Lovely Thanksgiving week here in the Carolinas. Got all my kids home for five days which made me a very happy man. I am blessed beyond measure.

Dallas took my Survivor ticket into the Teens as weeks One through Twelve are in the books. I have adjusted my Path to victory once again and looks like I'm going to use my Week 17 team Seattle this week. I had Seahawks beating Arizona in Week 17, and Houston beating Cleveland in Week 13, but Cleveland all of a sudden is a legitimate average team instead of an easy "free square." Houston will be on a short week after playing tonight, and I'm just getting that prickly sensation at the back of my neck. So I will strike with the suddenly hot Seabirds at home against SF in 13 and then push Houston to Week 17 at home vs. Jacksonville. Looks like this:

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas

Week 13: SEATTLE

14. Denver @ sf (or Ten v. jax)
15. Atlanta v ari
16. New England v buf
17. Houston v jax

There are 121 tickets left vying for the 100k.

And Carolina... sigh, we were doomed after Donte Jackson injured his quad on the very first play of the game. His replacement got burned deep over and over (though it took Pete Carol 3 quarters to notice and let Wilson throw the ball). Gano blew another game and now the Panthers have lost three straight. The last two losses by a total of 4 points. I'd say we do not make the playoffs this year, with games against the Saints (twice) and Atlanta still on the docket.

Survivor Week 12

Another 50% plus went down in week 11 as 140 tickets fell. One hundred and twenty-four remain.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans

 

12. DALLAS v Washington (formerly Cincy, formerly Philly)

Survivor Week 11

I had something less than a clean slate in Week 10. Philadelphia laid a big fat loss on my 25k tickets. GB moved my 100k ticket, which of course is the most important thing (but don't we dwell on our losses more than we celebrate our victories?). I have adjusted my path for this last remaining ticket based on the teams' play this past weekend. Capitalized teams are changes from last week's Path.

After watching 

Overall, in the 100k contest, a whopping 47% fell on various favorites—which is fantastic news (trying to concentrate on the positive here!) The contest started with 12,299 tickets and 12,035 have bitten the dust. 264 remain. That's $378 per ticket if everyone wins every game for the final 7 weeks. Let's keep this one ticket rolling and let others fall by the wayside, shall we?

 

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay

 

 11. NEW ORLEANS v Phi (formerly Atl v. Dal)

12. CINCINATTI (formerly Phi v. Giants)

13. Houston v Cle

14. TENNESSEE v. Jax (because I am using NO in week 11)

15. ATLANTA (because I am using Cin in week 12)

16. New England v Buf

17. Seattle v Ari

Survivor Week 10

I had a clean slate in Week 9, moving all tickets forward. The next three weeks are tough. Week 11 is a major hump to get over. I have mapped out the path to victory for all tickets. I am going to share the full plan for these three tickets. 

 

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Week 10: Green Bay

 11. Atl

12. Phi

13. Hou

14. NO

15. Cin

16. NE

17. Sea

 

25K Contest

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Week 10: Philadelphia

11. NO

12. Bal

13. Hou

14. Car

15. Min

16. NE

17. KC

 

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Week 10: Philadelphia

11. NO

12. Bal

13. GB

14. Car

15. Atl

16. NE

17. Sea

Survivor Week 9

I had a clean slate in Week 8, moving all tickets forward. It as an easy week, as almost no one got knocked off around me. However, this is where "easy weeks come to an end. The next three weeks will be very telling. Week 11 in particular is absolutely brutal. Go ahead, go look.

I have mapped out the path to victory for all four of these tickets. Every week, every pick. I'll post the full plan next week. Let's get over the mid-year hump here first.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh

Week 9: Chicago

 

25K Contest

 

Pool Eight: LA Rams, KC, LA Chargers, New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Chicago

Week 9: Carolina

 

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver, Pittsburgh

Week 9: Chicago

 

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh

Week 9: Chicago

Survivor Week 8

I had a clean slate in Week 7, moving all tickets forward. I also had a nice adjustment on Sunday to my original picks, getting an easy win with Indianapolis instead of worrying over Atlanta in MNF. Extra sweet to advance the tickets with a weak team. Saves bullets for later in the contest.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis

Week 8: Pittsburgh

There is only one more week to consider Pittsburgh as a viable Survivor pick, that's how tough the rest of their schedule is this year. Their remaining home games are Panthers Chargers Patriots and Bengals. They go on the road to face Ravens Jags Saints Broncos and Raiders. The road game against the Raiders on December 9th is the only other time to consider Pittsburgh, in my opinion. By that point, the Raiders might have totally given up on the season. So I'm happy to load up on Pittsburgh this week at home, playing well, against a Cleveland squad that is regressing.

 

25K Contest

 

Pool Eight: LA Rams, KC, LA Chargers, New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis

Week 8: Chicago

This ticket has been straight juice each week. This week, I'm taking a risk in choosing Chicago at home against a turnover-prone Jets squad.

 

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver

Week 8: Pittsburgh

Pool Eleven is my strongest remaining ticket, with New England still available and three weak teams GB, Miami & Indianapolis already pushing the ticket forward. I'd like to keep some bullets in this gun and continue to take a risk here with some obtuse picks, and hope that the faves go down in flames, leaving me with strong picks for late in the season. 

I am using Pittsburgh here, and moving this ticket along.

 

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis

Week 8: Pittsburgh

Survivor Revisions

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota

Week 7: Indianapolis (previously Atlanta)

Liking the chance to get a win with Indy over Buffalo with a QB who didn't have a job a week ago. Indy puts up points fine, let's see if they can play some defense today.

25K Contest

^{note: this contest started in NFL week 2 so there are one fewer teams listed in the used column}

Pool Eight: LA Rams, KC, LA Chargers, New England, Minnesota

Week 7: Indianapolis (previously Atlanta)

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay

Week 7: Denver (Winner on Thursday night!)

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota

Week 7: Indianapolis (Previously Tampa Bay)

Survivor Week 7

Almost had my third clean slate in a row, but I made a last second change and changed one of my tickets to Chicago. Pffffffff it went up in smoke as Chicago managed to lose to Miami in gruesome fashion. We are now deep enough into the season where I will list the teams I've used for each ticket. That way you can better judge my thought process.

100K Contest

Used: Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, KC, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina, Minnesota

Week 7: Atlanta

FiveThirtyEight has Atlanta at 80% win probability with an ELO based line of -10. I like Atlanta at home on MNF to dispatch the Giants.

25K Contest

^{note: this contest started in NFL week 2 so there are one fewer teams listed in the used column}

Pool Eight: LA Rams, KC, LA Chargers, New England, Minnesota

Week 7: Atlanta

This ticket has been straight juice each week. That is, play the best available team on the board and damn the consequences.

Pool Eleven: LA Rams, Miami, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Green Bay

Week 7: Denver

Pool Eleven is my strongest remaining ticket, with New England still available and two weak teams GB and Miami already pushing the ticket forward. I'd like to keep some bullets in this gun and continue to take a risk here with some obtuse picks, and hope that the faves go down in flames, leaving me with strong picks for late in the season. 

I like Denver to rise up out of the ashes and put on a good display tonight on TNF, with the two-headed monster of Lindsay and Freeman piling up points and yards against the Cardinals 31st ranked rush defense. Yes, Denver has given up back to back 200 yard rushers, but Arizona ranks last in the league in total yards (220.5) and rushing (64.0). With DJ in the backfield, that means your line can't block. Denver could get well quick in this game.  

Pool Fifteen: LA Chargers, KC, LA Rams, Cincinnati, Minnesota

Week 7: Tampa Bay

FiveThirtyEight has TB at 77% with an ELO point spread of -8'. Also of note, I am playing Denver and TB in the SuperContest and with cash.

Survivor Week 6

I had my second clean slate of the year, and all five tickets moved on to week 6. It was risky, only using New England for one of my 5 tickets, but I really wanted to save them for week 16. One ticket now has New England slotted for week 16 and LAR ready to go in Week 17.

As far as the risky plays last week, yes it took a 63-yard field goal and a 24-point fourth quarter to do it, but in a season-long contest you've got to have some good breaks to make it to the end. This is the week to play Minny, as they don't have many good bullets left in their schedule. And as up and down as they are, seems like a good idea to take them when they're playing relatively well. I would beware taking Houston, seems a bit fishy to me. Here are the breakdowns of the top three plays at Sportsbook.ag: Minny 37%, Houston 27%, and Green Bay 23%.

100K Contest

MIN

25K Contest

MIN - two tickets

GB

CHI 

Note at 12:46 pm: Chicago is a late addition with the knowledge that Tannehil is out for Miami. Took one of the Minny tickets off. Taking a chance here and rolling the dice to have more variation later in the season.